15.07.2022
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a 0.6% YoY decline in June 2022 after rising 1.4% in May and 3.9% in April 2022 based on the latest and revised data . This was reported by the Center for Economic Research of the University of Cyprus.
The fallout from the Russian-Ukrainian war, the resumption of the pandemic, and recent extreme restrictive measures in China are all reflected in the negative year-on-year growth of CCLEI in June 2022, according to the press release.
In particular, the international price of Brent oil hit a new record high in June 2022. At the same time, economic sentiment indicators (ESI) in the euro area and Cyprus also contribute, which worsened in June 2022 compared to June last year . to the negative annual growth rate of CCLEI. The deterioration of the ESI is associated with a decline in sentiment in all sectors, and especially in the consumer sector.
In addition, temperature-adjusted electricity generation, which worsened in June 2022 compared to June 2021, also contributes negatively to the year-over-year CCLEI growth rate.
On the contrary, the majority of CCLEI’s domestic components are helping to contain the fall of CCLEI, recording an acceleration in their growth rate in June 2022 compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.
In particular, the growth rate of the total number of real estate purchase and sale agreements, the volume of credit card transactions, as well as, according to preliminary data, the growth rate of the number of tourists and retail sales volumes accelerated.
The Center for Economic Research notes that CCLEI for June 2022 is estimated based on the presence of the price of Brent crude oil, economic sentiment indicators (ESI) in the euro area and in Cyprus, the total number of real estate purchase agreements, the value of credit card transactions, as well as high-frequency data on passenger arrivals and temperature-adjusted power generation in June, and retail sales are estimated based on the latest available information from a number of different economic indicators.
