23.08.2022
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a 2.4% annual decline on July 2, 2022, following a 1.5% annual decline recorded in June 2022, based on the latest and revised data.
According to the Center for Economic Research at the University of Cyprus, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation and growing uncertainty are reflected in the negative year-on-year growth of CCLEI in July 2022.
In particular, economic sentiment indicators (ESI) in the euro area and Cyprus worsened in July 2022 compared to July last year, with the climate worsening mainly in the consumption sector. At the same time, the international price of Brent crude oil, which remained high in July 2022, also contributed to the negative year-on-year growth rate of CCLEI. The impact of high energy costs is also reflected in temperature-adjusted electricity generation, which worsened in July 2022 compared to July 2021, which also contributed to the negative year-over-year CCLEI growth rate.
On the contrary, most of the domestic components of CCLEI contribute to containing the fall of CCLEI and therefore the growth of the Cypriot economy, recording an acceleration in their growth rate in July 2022 compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, despite the difficult international economic climate.
In particular, the growth rate of the total number of real estate purchase and sale agreements, the volume of credit card transactions, the growth rate of tourist arrivals, and also, according to preliminary data, the volume of retail sales accelerated.
Thus, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and all the consequences that come with it continue to burden the growth prospects of the international and, by extension, the Cypriot economy, a fact that is indicated by the negative annualized growth rate of the CCLEI in July 2022.
